nytimes.com – Hillary Clinton has about 76% chance of winning the presidency.
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time: